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Each of the following fields offer opportunities for the application of MaceTech Options Analysis. Comments will be focused and limited. After initial familiarisation, practitioners in each area will readily appreciate a wider range of application opportunities.
MaceTech Options Analysis may be usefully applied in all survey research concerned with competitive position and market analysis. This includes the measurement of share and the related issues of loyalty, commitment, satisfaction, changeability, etc. It may be applied to images, institutions, product and services, product and service attributes, and policies and practices, as well as in public opinion polling. Relevant application contexts include: strategy, tactics, design, evaluation, tracking, and monitoring.
Ease of communication between clients and researchers is important for effective market research. MaceTech Options Analysis central tenets can be readily appreciated, accepted and applied. Its main role is diagnostic rather than directive or prescriptive: it illuminates opportunities or threats and describes effective avenues for change. At the same time it allows scope for creative and cost-effective problem solving either in partnership with or by the client through a combination of simulation and supportive data collection.
One scale rating per option is all that is required to perform an analysis. It is this comparative data lightness which enables its application across a wide variety of research functions including tracking and monitoring. The methodology may be incorporated within any sample survey.
MaceTech Options Analysis simulation and forecasting of product or service share and advantage can be readily understood, implemented, and applied as an integral part of any product or service analysis.
Options Analysis encapsulates methods characterising market relationships within sets of products and services. These relationships are summarised in terms of option advantage, disadvantage and share.
These three key views of an option’s relative position are, in turn, broken into elements or components which are impacted by tactics and strategies. These impacted elements or components generating advantage, disadvantage, and share are the appeal distribution parameters.
In marketing terms these parameters tease out such descriptive concepts as "generic" and "differentiated", enabling statistical analysis of the full range of effects influencing each option’s perception.
Full structural analysis includes awareness as an integral element in the analysis of advantage, disadvantage and share. This particular analysis shows what proportion of an option’s share is attributable to awareness versus appeal.In turn, this will inform strategic review concerned with both awareness and appeal objectives.
Options Analysis results identify aspects of product or service appeal, which, if targeted appropriately, can effectively modify appeal and advantage, disadvantage or share in desired directions. These aspects are identified by the appeal distribution parameter descriptions. They are sufficiently specific to substantially improve effectiveness by channelling creative focus, while being sufficiently open to facilitate creative solutions.
The value of advertising lies beyond recognition, awareness, or evaluation of the advertising itself. It lies in changed awareness and appeal of target options. More specifically, on changing appeal, it lies in changing appeal parameters impacting most effectively on advantage, disadvantage and share of choice objectives. Options Analysis can be usefully applied to measure these specific changes.
Options Analysis can be effectively applied to situations where comparative evaluation is required of corporate or institutional images. This may involve initial assessment and evaluation of possible changes through to monitoring and tracking. Simulation and forecasting can be performed at each step.
The key benefit of using MaceTech Options Analysis for such analysis is the information provided on the structure of the image. It is not enough to be popular. Corporate effectiveness depends on consistency between perception, function and objectives.
Here are some examples of image analysis results with Options Analysis:
With MaceTech Options Analysis, it is feasible to obtain fast and accurate in-depth assessment of external or internal target audience perceptions that are both more accurate and more revealing than conventional polling methods.
Assessments may involve review of alternatives for corporate response to current challenges such as: generation of investment funding; maintaining shareholder support; public response to development plans; ensuring consistency between corporate and employee objectives; evaluating strategies for the management of public confidence in a crisis; etc.
On such issues Options Analysis not only provides the usual (but sometimes misleading) shares of preference results, but also the more precise and revealing analysis of appeal, advantage, and disadvantage underlying share. As with data on products and services, this data is amenable to simulation and forecasting as well as providing constructive input to the modifications of plans.
MaceTech Options Analysis has the same relevance to surveys associated with economics, finance and market behaviour as it has for any other survey where there is a concern to analyse appeal and share of choice amongst options. Only trend analysis will be considered in more detail.
An important feature of Options Analysis concerning time series is the ability to simulate outcomes in both stable and unstable situations.
Since each appeal distribution is independent of the others, and, advantage, disadvantage and share derive from appeal parameter entanglements within and between options, changes may take a variety of forms. Changes in advantage or share may involve simple linear or non-linear trends or wave-like, saw-tooth or step-like patterns, or result in "catastrophe".
Inherently, the relations between option appeal, advantage, disadvantage and choice, over time, can be regarded as both complex and chaotic but not random. While full predictability is not possible, short and medium term predictions based on updated tracking or monitoring is likely to be the most effective method for keeping in touch with reality and anticipating likely future outcomes.
An example of "catastrophe" has already been described where everyone in a group sees two options as having almost identical appeal but with one rated by each individual slightly higher than the other. The slightest general shift can result in total reversal of shares – from 100% to 0% for one option and 0% to 100% for the other. This type of situation can occur when the appeal of the two options have very high positive correlation and the same standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis. The share flip-flop depends on an order change of option means. If the reversal of the means is the result of consistent movement of appeal parameters over time, and they are tracked and projected, MaceTech Options Analysis simulation will predict the catastrophe.
Less dramatically, the same principles apply to the tracking and forecasting of advantage, disadvantage and share behaviour of all kinds: track and project option appeal parameters within a selection set and apply Options Analysis simulation.
An application, for example, might involve the stock market where trends are predicted from a sample of current stock market investors tracked on the appeal of the options: "Buy", "Sell", and "Hold". Another time series to track might be, say, industry or economy-wide prices where a survey of corporate "price makers" could be asked to rate appeal for "increasing your prices", "leaving your prices the same" and "decreasing your prices" as options. One can readily imagine similar measures for employment or investment intentions and a further set of intentions for samples of consumers.
MaceTech Options Analysis has its key political science application in political polling where it offers:
The primary focus of much political polling is share of vote intentions. Any vote share outcome is the result of the specific entanglement of option appeal parameters emerging from a particular poll. Numerous parameter entanglements are capable of generating the same share result. The same applies to share change. But interpretation of a specific result depends on its specific entanglement change.
Many political commentators imply by their analysis that they fully appreciate the nature of entanglement change. This is most unlikely as may be readily judged by the number of commentators prepared to predict a poll outcome compared to those prepared to "interpret" results post hoc.
After the event analysis is also quite likely to be incorrect. This is because any changes in share will be interpreted as the result of changes in appeal, and more specifically its parameters, for which there is usually no measurement.
Options Analysis involves direct measures for each option’s appeal. So, it is possible to determine the movement of each candidate, party, or other option independently of the other. For example, assume a set of two options, A and B, where Option A has increased its share by 5% points. Furthermore, to limit sources of change, assume that change in share was attributable solely to change in average appeal. Appeal data immediately answers the following possible reasons for the change:
Clearly, the possibilities will expand dramatically with additional parameters and options. (These can be readily addressed with appeal data and Options Analysis simulation analysis.)
With differential appeal as the source of share of votes, the precursor issues become: "What has affected or will affect appeal?" rather than "What has affected or will affect share?" The focus on appeal represents a considerable simplification of analysis because:
On the other hand, understanding the effects of a cause on share (as distinct from the effects on appeal) is simply to appreciate the effects on a very specific, and possibly ephemeral, appeal entanglement. What is more, the impact of a causal agent may more reflect the particular status of the appeal parameter entanglement (its current sensitivity or insensitivity) than its general power to effect change.
Since share of vote depends on appeal distributions, the parameters of those distributions and changes in those parameters, summarise the effective strategies and tactics for each option.
For example, whether you are a political manager or an interested observer, it is of interest to know whether, say, a party is gaining share on account of its improving general attractiveness (larger mean appeal) or polarisation of the electorate (increased appeal standard deviation), or because of decreasing attractiveness of the alternatives. While the contents of a campaign may suggest one tactic or another, the complexity of even a two option situation means that it is unwise to assume very much.
Here is another reason to measure appeal and to link precursors to it rather than to share. It enables a clearer and simpler analysis of strategic and tactical roles of each potential influence.
An important advantage of appeal data in this respect is that it more clearly shows the strategic and tactical relationships of minority parties, candidates or other choices, to the currently popular options. Options which account for only a small percentage of share can represent a threat which share data does not reveal. The appeal parameter profiles and specific Options Analysis analyses will indicate the comparative strengths and weakness of all the options and option opportunities.
Collection of option appeal data will improve precision and change sensitivity in three ways.
Compared to the usually substantial percentage of those who won’t or can’t say how they intend to vote, appeal ratings, which can be used to infer vote intentions, can be much more readily collected from nearly all aware of each option.
Those respondents supplying intentions can be used to confirm the validity of inferences from appeal. Where confirmed, the inferred data can replace the direct measures in the knowledge that it is more complete. In addition, the two results can be compared to estimate any bias amongst the don’t knows/can’t says.
The continuous appeal measure will invariably be much more precise than the nominal measure of choice. Standard errors can commonly be expected to be one to two thirds the size. This means that you are likely to detect changes several measures sooner or detect differences in sub-groups several times smaller than an equivalent survey using nominal scale responses.
Differences in appeal generate changes in choice. But significant change in appeal may not change choice because the change was not sufficient in amount. However, it is possible to forecast change in share by projecting a trend or increment in appeal. This may be further enhanced through the projection of trends or changes in appeal parameters to yield potentially counter-intuitive results of substantially greater precision.
While administrations may prefer popular acceptance of proposals, they are invariably constrained by technical and resource considerations. These constraints may be either not appreciated by or salient to a public focusing on a single issue. An obvious example involves cost constraints, which, because of the nature of a proposal, may be invisible or minor to the public but pressing to the supplier.
Through systematic exploration of option appeal differences, similarities, and variants, it becomes increasingly feasible to develop a synthesis of popular acceptance, on the one hand, and technical and resource demands, on the other.
Some policies are chosen simply on the basis of popularity - binding referendums do just that. More commonly, public and private agencies concerned with developing or changing policy, apply survey research to explore both preferences for and acceptability of a range of policy options and variant issues. Popularity apart, many policies require acceptability to be workable or effective.
The most generally appealing affordable option is not necessarily the same as the most popular affordable option. The most popular option may be deeply unpopular e.g. where the options are many with strongly contrasting appeal and thinly spread support for each. The most broadly appealing and widely acceptable option, may, paradoxically, have no popular support within the set of proposed options. Here is an example.
Synthesis of conflicting interests requires data enabling an understanding of appeal structures and their relationships between options. When the policy analysis focus is shifted, from share of preference to patterns of appeal, satisfactory resolution of acceptance issues may be possible. The similarities of options and the possibilities for their combination or variation may yield options with superior widespread appeal.
MaceTech Options Analysis enables inter-option analysis of both similarities and differences, for example, as measured by pair-wise advantage and disadvantage, overall, and parameter by parameter. This enables both identification of sources of difference and their scale. Equally important, it enables comparison of option variants to establish the character and size of variant contributions.
MaceTech Options Analysis is largely concerned with analysis at the group level. The appeal parameter effects of advantage, disadvantage, and choice are summaries of groups or sub-groups.
In particular, Options Analysis incorporates analysis of "systematic contrariness". This involves the analysis of appeals where influences may lead simultaneously in divergent directions. For example, the role of standard deviation parameter analysis is to assess the differential effect of expanded or contracted appeal ratings about the mean appeal for an option. Similar thinking applies to distribution shapes as measured by skewness and kurtosis, while negative correlation between options reflects systematic contrast in appeals. Options Analysis is able to provide an assessment of such component contributions to an option's overall appeal.
Options Analysis may be usefully applied in any survey research for understanding evaluations of alternatives and consequent choices for any group.
Attention is usually focused on explaining share of choice directly. While an option’s share may be interpreted as an option characteristic, it is only meaningful amongst a set of options as the result for one option depends on the others.
From one view, share is simply the aggregation of individual choice. However, its explanation as a social statistic involves an appreciation of complex interrelations of the relevant option appeal distributions. These are summarised in analysis of option appeal parameters.
Choice data are conventionally analysed in terms of specific or general "explanatory" variables. These may include option factors associated with the particular selection set, personal interests, income, sex, age, and so on. However, such "explanation" is limited to the current share profile. The relationships found may break down as soon as the share profile changes. Obviously, there is potential for misleading analysis based on an unknown ephemeral, fragile or untypical inter-distributional configuration.
By contrast, Options Analysis focuses on explicit analysis of how the current share of choice arises out of the more persistent and stable option appeal distributions within a set.
A two-step process is required to enable a more sustained appreciation of the generation of choices:
This provides both an understanding of the relations between appeal distributions generating share, through parameter analysis, and, a more robust and stable measure, in the form of appeal, to assess the factors influencing each option. Such an approach recognises that the appeal of different options, and subsequently, choice, may be influenced by the same or quite different causal variables, or a mixture of both.
The possible sensitivity of results for share of choice has been raised. In fact, the selection outcomes from any particular change to appeal parameters may result in no change or anything from simple linear increments, to jumps in level, to dramatic or even catastrophic changes in share. Since we are referring to a complex social system with chaotic potential, this should come as no surprise.
MaceTech Options Analysis provides tools and methods for the analysis and modelling social group choices and evaluations in ways that accommodate complexity and chaos. This increases both the robust flexibility of the analysis and opportunities for revealing counter-intuitive relationships between options.
This has implications for current approaches to the analysis of shares amongst options. A common assumption is that changes in shares are proportional to the scale of their causes ie causes and effects are linearly related. On the other hand, Options Analysis demonstrates that any given change in appeal can yield very different changes in share. The amount of change depends on the specific nature of the change in entanglements amongst the appeal distributions of the options involved. The prospects for any level of change may simulated on the basis of possible or projected changes to appeal distribution parameters and inferred choice.
MaceTech Options Analysis is a general purpose tool for the analysis of data measuring the value of alternatives and inferring choices. Thus, it has relevance to the study of such fields as prejudice, attitude change and persuasion.
An advantage of using Options Analysis is that the full range of factors underlying "systematic contrariness" amongst individuals is able to be analysed for the pooled sample results. Analysis is not limited to testing differences between means. Contributions to advantage, disadvantage and choice are analysed for each option. For example, Options Analysis can show the nature and composition of a range of option evaluations in terms of general appeal, appeal disparity and appeal contrasts, and so on. Each individual’s appeal evaluation may be seen as reflecting a mix of these components with the character of the mixtures differing between alternatives.
Options Analysis is not limited to large samples. It may be usefully applied to any group of, say, five or larger. With small samples, statistical power will be lost from tests of significance but this will not matter if the test group is the research target group e.g. a particular group of students or an employee group.
The use of very small group data can be an excellent way of understanding both:
With suitable translation of MaceTech Options Analysis concepts, from the group to the individual, analysis of a single subject's decision-making can be carried out. This involves interpreting a group's appeal distribution as an individual's appeal uncertainty and an option's share of choice as an individual's option choice probability. Click here for related background and procedures.
Introduction to Options Analysis fundamentals