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MaceTech Options Analysis may be effectively employed within and across a variety of applications including:
There is considerable flexibility in the scaling of Options Analysis to the scope, level and sophistication required by the objectives of each research project.
For most applications Options Analysis data requirements are economical. All that is usually needed is one question per option to obtain an appeal rating or, by default, an indication of unawareness or unfamiliarity. Data collection follows the normal procedures of survey application, data coding and cleaning.
MaceTech Options Analysis enables a rapid review of options to determine levels of option appeal, advantage, disadvantage, and shares of choice. These results reveal the similarities and differences between the options and the levels of option commitment and changeability.
Further analysis of parameter effects on advantage, disadvantage and share of choice will indicate areas of strength and weakness between options.
Similarly, simulation of parameter effects will indicate potentially fruitful directions for future change. Here, identification of the type of parameter effects desired indicate the nature of the factors involved and enable effort to be focused for effective change.
The important aspect of Options Analysis here is the relationship between advantage and disadvantage, on the one hand, and share of choice on the other.
MaceTech Options Analysis of a selection set, especially with the aid of simulation, will reveal any areas where modest changes in appeal and thereby advantage will yield a disproportionate change in share of choice. The parameter involved will indicate the character of change required.
Because of its holistic approach to option evaluation, Options Analysis offers simple and direct methods for appraising option design and development.
Each new option is either a hypothetical scenario or a modified scenario for an existing option. The evaluation of these options is carried out in the same manner as for any Options Analysis.
It can be readily seen that the appeal of a possible option modification can just as easily be canvassed in the course of a simple tracking or monitoring survey as in a major one-off study. The results can be compared to the current option as well as any alternatives.
This methodology will show whether the direction and nature of the change results are consistent with strategic or tactical needs as revealed by parameter analysis. In addition, where a range of possible option variants are tested, the results should show which options are the most promising as well as whether the scale of response could be worthwhile.
Options Analysis offers the opportunity for tracking and monitoring with considerable added value. This will usually involve collecting appeal data on each key option instead of option choices. The return can be substantial, including:
As a tracking variable the continuous measure of appeal will invariably be much more precise and sensitive to change than nominal measures of choice. Change from a nominal to a continuous measure can commonly be expected to reduce standard errors by one to two thirds. This means that you are likely to detect changes several measures sooner or detect changes in sub-groups several times smaller than an equivalent survey using nominal scale responses.
Added to these statistical benefits is the knowledge that change in appeal generates changes in choice. Sometimes considerable change in an option’s appeal is necessary before choice changes. For example, an advertising campaign may move appeal in a group much closer to a target option choice without actually achieving a change. Measurement based on choice alone would probably assess the campaign a failure. This is even where the campaign may be the most effective possible and result in success if continued. The degree of success would be obvious from the methods described here.
Perhaps just as important, collecting appeal data on two or more options enables full Options Analysis on those options. This means it will be possible not only to track option outcomes but also movements in the effective tactics and strategies associated with all the options measured (as they are reflected in the changes of appeal parameters).
Even for a minimal tracking regime, periodic measurement of just one key option’s appeal enables assessment of both overall change and parameter performance in relation to tactics and strategy for the option.
Where appeal data is collected in monitoring or tracking two or more options Options Analysis simulation can be applied. This means that it will not only be possible to anticipate trends in outcome as they follow changes in appeal, but it will also be possible to detect peaks and turnarounds in advantage and share and other prospects for dramatic change.
Options Analysis simulation and forecasting, depends on scenarios involving appeal parameter changes to option appeal distributions. Parameter changes would commonly be based on:
Both the size of the appeal parameter changes and the parameter entanglements within and between options can generate a wide variety of share outcomes. For example, incremental changes to appeal parameters may have any of the following effects:
This merely confirms that the relationships between appeal and choice are characteristic of a complex social system with chaotic elements.
From a planning perspective, simulation is a key tool for revealing threats to a favoured option or revealing opportunities to gain from other options. In particular, simulation should reveal the parameter or parameters which would need to be effectively leveraged to achieve the desired objectives. This provides the focus for constructively addressing change efforts which deliver the appropriate results.
The uncertain and sometime counter-intuitive relationships between scale of advantage and share of choice points to the importance of:
as parts of a single system for reviewing the status of important options.
The closest analogy is weather information systems. Only through simulation of current data, taking account of recent trends and patterns, is reliable prediction of counter-intuitive outcomes likely to occur. More mundanely, Options Analysis simulation and forecasting may confirm the current status or incremental change characteristic of smoother waters. Until the analysis is done the possible outcomes remain unknown. But whatever the predictions, they should be treated with confidence only in the short-term. So the need for monitoring and tracking and further analysis continues.
Introduction to MaceTech Options Analysis fundamentals